Developing an Evidence-Based Threat Management Tool for Police Settings: Findings from a Total Cohort Survey of the Swiss Police Corps

Preventive approaches to tackling violence have become increasingly important in policing. Specialized threat management units in Swiss police corps use the Octagon-Intervention. The tool is conceptualized as a management-oriented structured professional judgement framework for heterogeneous police threat management cases. Octagon-Intervention is explicitly intended neither as a substitute for specialized violence-specific tools nor as an actuarial risk assessment instrument. The present study used an online survey among all Swiss police threat managers to assess the usefulness of Octagon-Intervention and the need for adaptations. Based on the participants’ responses and a literature review of relevant risk factors to be considered in threat assessments, suggestions are made for a revised threat management tool for use by specialized police forces. Independent of the present survey findings, a review of the relevant literature broadly supports the risk factors reflected in the eight domains of Octagon-Intervention, with some minor refinements required. The responses of 88 participants could be analyzed, indicating that the fundamental concept of Octagon-Intervention is widely accepted among current users. However, a mismatch between acceptance and practicability has emerged, and a revision seems necessary. A revised instrument should be less complex and shorter and accompanied by a user manual. Bespoke training on the tool and the underlying principles of threat management seems paramount. An updated version of Octagon-Intervention should be subjected to empirical studies to test its reliability and validity.