Analysis of the Impact of the Country’s Institutional Development Level on Human Capital in Russia and Worldwide

The article examines the impact of a country’s institutional development level on the accumulation and returns of human capital using a sample of 159 countries. The information base comprises nine indicators: the Fragile States Index, Rule of Law Index, Corruption Perceptions Index, Basel AML Index, Property Rights Index, Human Development Index, Human Capital Index, as well as GDP and GNI per capita (PPP). Correlation analysis, OLS regression with multicollinearity diagnostics, and principal component analysis are applied. Institutional quality indicators are shown to form a single cluster closely associated with human capital (r = 0.83–0.94), while state fragility is consistently negatively correlated with it (r up to −0.72). In the regression, the human development and human capital indices explain 89.7% of the variance in per capita income. For Russia, an “institutional gap” of about 1.5–2σ is identified: its human capital exceeds the sample average, whereas institutional quality lags behind, constraining the full conversion of the accumulated potential into economic well-being. Institutional policy priorities are formulated.