The Global South’s Schengen Visa Barrier: Path Dependence, Migration Pressure, or Income Gaps?

Schengen visa rejection rates have become an increasingly important constraint on the international mobility of countries in the Global South. This study examines the factors associated with visa rejection rates across countries in the Global South. The analysis is based on a balanced panel dataset covering the period 2014–2024 and comprising annual observations for 50 countries. A dynamic panel data framework is employed using the two-step system generalized method of moments (SGMM) estimator. The findings indicate strong persistence in Schengen visa rejection rates, with countries experiencing relatively high rejection rates in previous periods tending to exhibit similar patterns over time. This dynamic continuity is consistent with, but does not by itself establish, a path-dependence mechanism. The results also suggest that migration pressure may be associated with stricter visa practices. At the same time, the SGMM estimates provide some evidence of a positive association between wider per capita income differentials and Schengen visa rejection rates. An additional heterogeneity analysis provides no evidence that the association between the income gap and visa rejection rates differs significantly across income groups. Robustness checks using fixed effects and Driscoll–Kraay estimators provide further evidence of persistence, while providing only partial support for the migration pressure and income-gap findings. Overall, the findings suggest that Schengen visa policies may extend beyond administrative procedures and may also reflect broader patterns of global mobility inequality. JEL Classification F22, F52, O15, C23, J15