Prevalence, determinants and spatial patterns of marital dissolution among ever married women in Tanzania using population-based survey data

Background Marital dissolution, encompassing divorce and separation, poses critical social, economic, and health challenges. This study maps the prevalence and determinants of marital dissolution among ever-married women in Tanzania, employing a multilevel mixed-effects model to capture individual and community-level influences and using geospatial analysis to identify regional patterns. Methods This population-based study utilized data from the 2022 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS-MIS), which employed a stratified two-stage cluster sampling design. A total of 10,837 ever-married women aged 15–49 years were included. Socio-demographic and contextual variables were analyzed. A mixed-effects multilevel logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with marital dissolution, while geospatial analyses, including spatial autocorrelation, were conducted to examine geographic patterns across Tanzania. Results Marital dissolution was reported by 15% of respondents. Geospatial mapping indicated pronounced regional disparities, with the highest rates in the Southern zone, particularly in Lindi (25.56%) and Mtwara (23.84%). Significant individual determinants included older age (AOR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.04–1.06), cash employment (AOR = 2.73, 95% CI 2.23–3.35), and lower educational attainment. Community-level factors, such as community-level household wealth and urban residence, also influenced marital dissolution, with urban women nearly twice as likely to experience dissolution compared to rural women. Conclusion The findings indicate that marital dissolution is a notable concern among ever-married women in Tanzania, with important implications for family stability and social well-being. The results highlight the complex interplay of demographic, socio-economic, and regional factors associated with marital dissolution. Spatial analysis further identifies geographic disparities, with higher concentrations observed in specific regions such as the Southern zone, suggesting the need for context-specific interventions. These findings underscore the importance of integrating social and public health strategies to support stable family structures in Tanzania’s evolving socio-economic environment.