Sectoral Prioritization in Türkiye: Integrating Production-Network Centrality, CGE Impact, and Robust Policy Decision Analysis

Sectoral prioritization may conflate a sector’s structural position in the production network with its economy-wide policy impact. This study examines the relationship between these two dimensions using Türkiye’s 2023 production network and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to a Social Accounting Matrix. For 62 sectors, it compares the Structural Network Importance Index (SNII) with the Economy-wide Impact Performance Index (EIPI) from sector-specific productivity shocks. The SNII is weakly and positively associated with the raw EIPI (ρ=0.167), but weakly and negatively associated with the size-controlled EIPI (ρ=−0.131); neither estimate is precise, and equivalence within a pre-specified |ρ|<0.25 band is not established. Mean-threshold classifications diverge for 62.9% of sectors, compared with 58.1% at median thresholds and 41.9–48.4% across alternative tercile and upper-quartile cut-points. A Hulten benchmark strongly tracks CGE effects on real gross domestic product (GDP) (ρ=0.956), while nonlinear general-equilibrium wedges remain. A staged framework combines the two-dimensional sector map with Pareto dominance, balance constraints, and membership stability across 96 measurement specifications. Wholesale trade (sec29) and the combined real-estate/imputed-rent sector (sec44) are measurement-stable candidates, but the latter is interpretation-sensitive; excluding sec44 yields sec29, sec30, sec36, and sec48 as primary candidates. Preference-conditional rankings are assessed separately under explicit scenarios and constrained Dirichlet weights. The results show that network position, scale, and general-equilibrium leverage are related but non-equivalent objects.