Species-level rather than origin-based responses determine climatic suitability of urban trees in temperate cities

Urban trees are essential for climate-resilient cities, offering cooling, ecological stability, and well-being benefits. Yet ongoing climate change threatens the suitability of many species in European urban forests. This study evaluates the future climatic suitability of the most planted tree species, both native and exotic, in Amsterdam, under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for 2071–2100. Species distribution models (MaxEnt) were calibrated with global occurrence data and climate projections, adjusted for local urban heat effects. Results indicate that most species are projected to face significant declines in suitability, regardless of nativity. Native and exotic species did not differ in relative suitability change under SSP5-8.5 (-46.1% vs -45.0%; P = 0.87), while hybrids declined substantially (-74.9%; P < 0.001). Platanus orientalis , Celtis australis , Salix babylonica, Cercis siliquastrum and Taxodium distichum , emerged as the most climatically robust. By contrast, many currently dominant species, such as Tilia americana, T. europaea, Ulmus hollandica or Magnolia kobus, are likely to become unsuitable. These findings suggest that some exotic species may play an increasingly important role in maintaining urban forest resilience under future climates while others will face the strongest predicted declines, due to species-specific heterogeneity. The study provides a data-driven framework to support adaptive tree selection strategies in Amsterdam and other temperate cities.