Techno-optimism, social pessimism: Attributional asymmetries raise concerns about moral hazard related to the direct air capture of CO2

The Direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 has seen widespread inclusion in net-zero modeling which, in turn, has heightened concerns that it could trigger moral hazard. Although recent studies suggest awareness of DAC development lowers individuals' emissions reduction ambition, their reliance on first-person measures leaves them susceptible to social desirability bias. To address this limitation, the present study uses indirect questioning to determine whether perceptions of moral hazard are ascribed to others but not to oneself and provides an explanation for this asymmetry based on Attribution theory. A representative U.S. sample ( N = 900) was randomly assigned to either a control or DAC development condition. We found that exposure to the DAC development condition increased participants' reported climate ambition relative to the control group. Participants in the DAC condition rated their own emissions-reduction intentions as more ambitious than those attributed to others. Consistent with Attribution theory, we also found that emission-reduction expectations were judged more ambitious when motivations were construed as internal (dispositional) rather than external (situational). Importantly, the significant differences observed in the control group between attributing others' emission reduction expectations to internal factors and external factors converged in the DAC scenario. Demonstrating that dispositional motivations lead to decreased mitigation ambition provides evidence of moral hazard. These results have implications for climate governance because behavioral climate policy research suggests that expectations about moral hazard may undermine mitigation efforts.