Climate-informed assessment of long-term buffeting performance of suspension bridges

Due to the continuous rise in greenhouse gas emissions, the global climate system is becoming increasingly unpredictable. For wind-sensitive structures, such as cable-supported bridges, a higher frequency of intense windstorms and increased extreme wind speeds can lead to serviceability problems, including more frequent operational closures and long-term structural issues related to material fatigue. This study presents a framework for integrating high-resolution climate projection data into the assessment of changes in extreme wind events. The approach employs a convection-permitting climate model (CPCM), which explicitly resolves convective processes at a 3 km grid spacing. Projections are considered for two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Analysis of the climate projections indicates that wind speeds are not expected to change substantially across much of Fennoscandia. However, considering the overwhelming uncertainty in the projections, the bridge performance is assessed under additional synthetic scenarios to explore its vulnerability. The framework is demonstrated using the Hardanger Bridge in Norway, which combines site-specific wind and turbulence models with performance assessment metrics that account for both buffeting-induced serviceability exceedance, operational downtime, and wind-induced fatigue demand under climate-projected and synthetic wind scenarios