The autocratization plateau? The new phase of democratic decline

Despite broad consensus that autocratization has dominated regime change in recent years, little attention has been paid to this process stabilizes. This article documents a turning point after 2019. Autocratization has stopped spreading to new countries at the same rate, even as global democratic decline persists. Using V-Dem data (2000–2025), this article identifies an autocratization plateau marked by two features: spatial saturation, with the number of affected countries stabilizing at ∼45, and compositional change, with new episodes falling to 15.6% while ongoing ones reach 84.4%. The article theorizes this shift through an extensive-intensive framework borrowed from economic growth theory, and tests two candidate mechanisms: pool saturation and declining authoritarian diffusion. Pool saturation emerges as the dominant driver, while declining authoritarian diffusion operates as an independent complementary mechanism. Regional patterns diverge substantially, with Western democracies and Central Asia now emerging as new epicentres while Latin America, East Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa have plateaued. These findings challenge the dominant narrative of autocratization as a continuously deepening and spreading phenomenon, and suggest that democracy support strategies should shift from prevention towards proactive reversal of ongoing episodes.