Beyond traditional emissions modelling in high value manufacturing: a hybrid approach for net zero supply chains

Achieving net-zero emissions in high-value manufacturing requires more accurate ways of modelling emissions, particularly Scope 3 emissions across complex supply chains. This study conducts a systematic literature review to critically examine existing modelling approaches within production research and high-value manufacturing supply chains. The review shows that game theory, multi-regional input-output models, and simulation approaches such as system dynamics, discrete event simulation, and agent-based modelling are widely used to enhance emissions modelling. However, these approaches are still largely applied in isolation. This fragmentation limits their ability to capture the dynamic, behavioural, and macroeconomic complexities of global supply chains in high-value manufacturing contexts. Drawing on insights from the review, we propose a conceptual hybrid modelling framework for integrating complementary modelling approaches across production systems, supply chain management, and logistics contexts. We also highlight the enabling role of data analytics in strengthening model integration and supply chain transparency. Finally, we develop an agenda to guide future research in hybrid emissions modelling. This research provides a pathway for translating model outputs into industry-relevant insights, identifying key barriers, and exploring how emerging drivers can support a more adaptive and industry-informed transition to net-zero manufacturing.