Investigating variability and uncertainty in upstream methane emissions intensity estimates of Western Canadian oil and gas production

Variabilities and uncertainties associated with different Canadian methane emissions inventories representing oil and gas (O&G) production impact the life cycle carbon intensities (CI) (i.e., amount of GHG emissions per unit of activity or output) of O&G end-use products. We present a life cycle analysis (LCA) of four end-use pathways (liquefied natural gas (LNG) for electricity generation, blue hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles, gasoline for passenger vehicles, and jet fuel for passenger aviation), investigating the life cycle implications of site-level methane emissions intensity inventories representing Canadian O&G production operations across four geographical regions in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia. We observe that methane emissions intensities range from 0.0035 to 44 gCO 2 e/MJ oil for oil production and from 0.031 to 24 gCO 2 e/MJ gas for gas production across measured, reported, and modelled inventories considered in this study. The ranges of methane emissions intensities result in life cycle CIs of 475—609 gCO 2 e/kWh for LNG for electricity generation, 30—45 gCO 2 e/km-driven for blue hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, 280—398 gCO 2 e/km-driven for gasoline passenger vehicles, and 118—172 gCO 2 e/revenue-passenger-km for jet fuel for passenger aviation. The variabilities and uncertainties quantified for the life cycle CIs of O&G end-use products warrant careful consideration in strategic decision-making to avoid potential unintended consequences of carbon mitigation scenarios.