From peace-through-tourism to peace-to-tourism: A cross-national analysis of peace-security profiles and tourism competitiveness

This study reframes peace as a structural condition associated with tourism competitiveness. Moving beyond the dominant “peace-through-tourism” paradigm, it advances a “peace-to-tourism” perspective that conceptualizes peace as institutional capital shaping predictability, coordination, and investment conditions that drive destination competitiveness. Using the 2025 Global Peace Index and 2024 Travel & Tourism Development Index for 116 countries, the study identifies five peace-security profiles and compares tourism performance across them. Results reveal systematic cross-profile differences in core competitiveness domains, with particularly pronounced differences in the enabling environment and infrastructure, while fragile profiles rely more on compensatory advantages such as price. Spatial mapping shows clear regional patterning. Robustness checks controlling for income, institutions, integration, and region indicate that broader correlates absorb some differences, whereas infrastructure-related differences remain distinct. Given the cross-sectional design, findings are interpreted as comparative associations rather than causal effects, offering a policy-relevant typology of competitiveness bottlenecks.