Citizen perceptions of the EU’s Global Gateway and China’s Belt and Road Initiative: evidence from South Africa and Nigeria

Western donors have responded to competition from Chinese development finance by introducing infrastructure initiatives of their own. Are they effective in helping donors curry favour in recipient countries? We focus on the European Union’s (EU) Global Gateway Initiative, commonly understood as a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In survey experiments fielded in South Africa and Nigeria, we investigate how respondents in recipient countries perceive EU- and Chinese-funded projects. Compared to China, we find that the EU gains more reputational benefits from funding projects. Overall, however, respondents do not discriminate between China and the EU as funders of hypothetical development projects. This suggests that the Global Gateway has the potential to compete with China for soft power influence, if consistent branding and identification of the EU can overcome current lack of familiarity with the EU.