When crisis teaches caution: How early debt experiences influence fiscal discipline during african elections?

This paper examines the relationship between finance ministers' early-life exposure to debt crises and political budget cycles in Africa using a novel dataset covering 24 countries over the period 1980–2022. We find that finance ministers who experienced debt crises during their formative years are associated with lower government expenditure during election years. We also document evidence consistent with a learning effect , as the association between elections and government expenditure weakens with greater early-life debt crisis exposure. While these relationships remain robust across a range of alternative specifications, they are attenuated once president fixed effects are introduced, suggesting that fiscal outcomes during election years likely reflect the combined influence of finance ministers and presidents. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating policymakers' formative experiences into our understanding of fiscal policy while recognizing the important role of presidential leadership and institutional constraints.