Projecting future habitat suitability and range dynamics of Spermophilus dauricus on the Mongolian Plateau under climate change

As a key rodent species on the Mongolian Plateau, Spermophilus dauricus influences grassland ecosystem functioning and serves as a major plague host, highlighting the importance of understanding its distribution dynamics. In this study, a BIOMOD2-based ensemble species distribution modelling framework was used to predict the current and future potential distribution of S. dauricus , identify the main environmental drivers of its distribution, and assess its range expansion risk across the Mongolian Plateau. The ensemble model showed excellent predictive performance (TSS = 0.907, AUC = 0.988). Precipitation seasonality was identified as the dominant environmental driver, followed by soil texture, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and diurnal temperature range. Under current climatic conditions, suitable habitats were mainly concentrated in the southeastern Mongolian Plateau. Future scenario projections indicated that the potential suitable habitat of S. dauricus exhibited an expansion trend under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, whereas under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, it showed an initial expansion followed by contraction. Compared with the overall potential suitable habitat, highly potential suitable habitats were more sensitive to climate change and showed a significant decline in the future. With increasing climate change, the potential distribution pattern of the species underwent substantial reorganization, with the centroid of suitable habitats continuously shifting northwestward. Integrating ecological resource conditions with land-use characteristics showed that current high expansion risk areas were primarily distributed in Chifeng, Xilingol League, and Ulanqab in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. This study provides a scientific basis for predicting the distribution dynamics of S. dauricus , monitoring plague risks, and implementing adaptive management of grassland ecosystems under climate change.