Expanding agency in precarious careers: Evidence from a guaranteed income program for artists

This study estimates the causal effects of the Creatives Rebuild New York (CRNY) Guaranteed Income for Artists program, which provided $1000 monthly payments to 2400 artists over 18 months. Building on sociological research on precarity, agency, and institutional supports, the analysis investigates how unconditional cash transfers shape artistic professional development. Outcomes include experimentation in artistic practice, skill development, perceptions of artistic quality and impact, applications for grants and awards, and engagement in community-based work. Using a weighted lottery to assign program participation and a matched comparison group for analysis, we employ generalized boosted models to estimate program effects while addressing potential nonresponse bias. Results show consistent impacts across multiple domains: guaranteed income increased experimentation, enhanced perceived skill development and artistic quality, and expanded community engagement, while also encouraging greater pursuit of external recognition opportunities. These findings suggest that guaranteed income operates as an institutional buffer in artistic labor markets, altering the conditions under which agency is exercised and professional investments are made. The study contributes to broader debates in the sociology of work by showing how financial supports can influence patterns of career development and stability in precarious occupations.