Scenarios of marine nature-based solutions and sustainable seafood harvesting in a future climate

In response to alarming declines in biodiversity around the globe, policies have been created to support interventions such as Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for marine protection and restoration, and ecosystem-based management to increase the sustainability of fisheries yields. Projections from mechanistic models of marine socio-ecological systems may be of use to demonstrate the potential effectiveness of these interventions and inform decision-makers on effective strategies. As a starting point, we created a set of regionalized scenarios on marine restoration (NbS1), marine protected areas (NbS2), and nature-inclusive harvesting (NiH) of seafood that incorporates the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management within European regional seas. Our scenarios were based on the IPCC Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) narratives developed for global projections of climate change. Those narratives were enriched by defining PESTLE (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental) elements associated with each of the three interventions. This matrix of 3 SSPs x 6 PESTLE elements x 3 interventions (NbS & NiH) was downscaled using stakeholder dialog in seven European regional seas or sub-areas. The rationale for using a common PESTLE framework was to enable cross-system comparisons of common narratives. Downscaling to specific regions allowed us to include elements of key interest to environmental managers from each region tasked with implementing NbS and NiH to meet obligations of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for habitat protection, the EU Nature Restoration Regulation or other national environmental policy objectives.