Spatiotemporal modelling of post-COVID recreation reveals persistent and emerging pressures on freshwater ecosystems

Restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic pushed large numbers of recreationists towards freshwater ecosystems, but whether this shift was temporary or lasting has remained unclear. Using 129045 freshwater-related Wikiloc records (2016–2024), we modelled how recreation changed in time and space along the entire river network of the Catalan River Basin District (NE Spain), separating the pandemic effect from the platform's own growth. Recreation after the pandemic was 2.4 times higher than before, and the number of users doubled. Once platform growth was accounted for, recreation showed no return to its pre-pandemic baseline: activity remained elevated and its composition shifted, with hiking increasing by 168% and consolidating as the dominant activity. The increase was spatially uneven. Visitors continued to concentrate near roads and trails, but the sharpest relative growth occurred in the most natural stretches of river, and use rose as strongly outside protected areas as within them. Recreation has therefore remained elevated since the pandemic, spread more widely across the network, and grown fastest in its least disturbed reaches. Carrying-capacity assessments calibrated to pre-pandemic conditions may no longer reflect where and how recreation now takes place.