How Cyber Deterrence Theory and Cyber Persistence Theory can adopt an actor-centric approach: a rapid review

Cyber deterrence and cyber persistence theories are commonly used to develop strategies to respond to unwanted behaviour in cyberspace. Whilst there is abundant academic research on the applicability of deterrence theory to cyberspace, and a growing compendium of works on cyber persistence theory, much research views cyber actors as a homogenous entity or broken into a binary of state vs non-state actors. This paper instead proposes taking an actor-centred approach. Performing a rapid review of cyber deterrence and cyber persistence theory, it finds there are five factors that impact actors: attribution, communication, cost, credibility (unique to deterrence) and interconnection (unique to persistence). Using abductive reasoning, the paper then identifies seven actor traits that may shape these factors: location, motives, technical skills, perception of the state, culture, personal connections and social status. By providing an initial framework linking the factors of these theories to characteristics of cyber actors, the paper highlights how variation between actors may influence the operation of deterrence and persistence based approaches. It is hoped that future research can examine the applicability and efficacy of these theories across states, cybercriminals, hacktivists, proxy actors, and other hybrid forms of cyber actor that blur traditional state/non-state distinctions.