Monetary policy uncertainty and corporate debt maturity structure

This study investigates the association between monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) and corporate debt maturity using an unbalanced panel of Chinese A-share non-financial listed firms from 2010 to 2024. Debt maturity is primarily measured by the long-term share of total interest-bearing debt, covering bank loans, bonds, lease liabilities, and other interest-bearing obligations. The results show that higher MPU is associated with shorter debt maturity. This relationship remains significant after accounting for major policy and economic episodes, yield-curve conditions, alternative inference procedures, and a debt measure excluding lease liabilities, but does not survive the full set of episode controls when maturity is restricted to bank loans. Cross-sectional exposure estimates identify firm size and asset tangibility as the most persistent moderators. In joint tests, these characteristics dominate growth-option proxies, a pattern more consistent with collateral capacity and long-term credit rationing. The financial-distress explanation is not supported. Instead, the accompanying increase in the Altman Z-score and decline in leverage point towards precautionary balance-sheet retrenchment. The findings highlight the importance of comprehensive debt measurement when assessing how monetary policy uncertainty relates to corporate financing decisions.