Does Varietal Performance Information Drive Better Seed Choices? Experimental Evidence from Kenya

Context Despite substantial gains in hybrid maize performance in Kenya, many farmers continue to plant varieties released over two decades ago. Slow varietal turnover limits productivity gains and resilience, particularly under increasing climate stress. While multiple demand- and supply-side constraints contribute to this pattern, a key and underexplored constraint is farmers’ limited access to independent, credible, and up-to-date information on the performance of currently available hybrids. Objective To assess whether providing contextually relevant and product-specific performance information influences farmers’ maize seed choice, with a focus on selection of top-performing hybrids. Methods We implemented a randomized controlled trial in Kenya in which farmers in the treatment group received farmer-reported yield information for ten commercially available maize hybrids grown in their county in the previous season. Farmers in the comparison group received placebo information unrelated to seed selection. We measured effects on stated purchase intentions and actual seed purchases. Results and conclusion s: Providing performance information tripled farmers’ intent to purchase top-performing hybrids (from 7% to 25%) and more than doubled actual purchases (from 5% to 11%). Although stockouts constrained some intended purchases, treated farmers remained significantly more likely to select these hybrids. The results indicate that lack of credible performance information is a binding constraint on improved seed choice and contributes to slow varietal turnover. Significance The findings underscore the importance of generating and disseminating independent, farmer-relevant varietal performance data. Investing in rigorous testing of commercially available hybrids and improving how results are shared with farmers can strengthen seed systems, accelerate varietal turnover, and support more informed decision making in Kenya and similar smallholder contexts. Realizing the full potential of these investments, however, requires parallel efforts to strengthen seed supply chains and support farmer experimentation."