Background: As strikingly shown by the series of shocks—H1N1 influenza, MERS-CoV, Ebola, Zika, and most recently the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, which claimed more than 1.2 million lives in the United States and caused an projected $14 trillion in combined direct and indirect economic damage—the emergence and re-emergence of new infectious diseases is an ongoing and increasing danger to U.S. public health security. These repeated cautions notwithstanding, the United States still lacks a totally integrated, real-time national infectious disease early warning system able to identify new pathogen signals with the speed and spatial resolution needed for successful pre-epidemic response. This study offers and assesses an Integrated Early Warning and Containment System (IEWACS) framework meant to methodically improve U.S. capability for early identification, prevention, and management of new infectious diseases by combining digital epidemiology, genomic surveillance, community health informatics, and cross-sector coordination tools. A mixed-methods technique using narrative systematic review, expert consensus analysis, and scenario-based simulation modeling was used. Synthesized were seven federal policy documents, four overseas epidemic response case studies, and eighty-one peer-reviewed articles. Using epidemiological data from U.S. epidemic histories (2009–2024), simulation modeling—minimal, moderate, and full deployment—estimated expected detection acceleration and containment effectiveness across three IEWACS implementation circumstances. Stakeholder views were included by means of organized synthesis of openly accessible expert testimony submitted to HHS, CDC, and Congressional hearings on pandemic preparedness from 2020–2025. Outcomes: Compared to baseline systems, full IEWACS installation was expected to cut mean time from pathogen emergence to confirmed public health warning by 8.3 days (95% CI: 5.1–11.5 days)—a decrease that, applied retroactively to the SARS-CoV-2 emergence timeline, would have allowed significant containment intervention roughly two incubation cycles ahead of the first confirmed U.S. case cluster. Integrating genomic surveillance was found to be the single best-yielding component for detection improvement, lowering the expected 3.2 days from a historical average of 16 days. Integrated with wastewater epidemiology and emergency department chief complaint data, community-based digital symptom surveillance added a 4.1-day detecting edge over clinical laboratory-dependent methods only. Finally,: Next-generation U.S. infectious disease early warning is well-founded and operationally actionable thanks to the IEWACS framework. Its implementation calls for legislative funding in CDC Core Capabilities, growth of the National Wastewater Surveillance System, speed-up of whole-genome sequencing integration across public health labs, and creation of a National Digital Epidemiology Center with real-time data aggregation power. The next pandemic’s human and financial cost of delayed diagnosis will exceed the expense of developing the infrastructure that could stop it.
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Ogbu et al. (2026) studied this question.
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