Quantifying the Impact of Construction Vessel Interference on Port Operations: An Agent-Based Simulation and Regression Analysis Framework

Port infrastructure development increasingly brings construction vessels into conflict with commercial shipping, yet quantitative assessments of such interference remain scarce. This study proposes a framework to quantify the impact of construction vessel activities on port operational efficiency. Three categories of construction vessels—channel-crossing, channel-occupying, and berth-occupying—are identified and modelled using agent-based simulation in AnyLogic. A virtual berth concept is introduced to represent construction vessel resource occupation, and the model is calibrated using data from a case-study port. Simulation outputs across varying traffic demand and construction vessel configurations are analyzed through multiple regression to derive quantitative estimates of interference. The results show that the three categories impose distinctly different levels of impact. Channel-occupying vessels have the most substantial effect, equivalent to approximately 8–10 commercial vessels at half the baseline demand level and 30–33 at three times the baseline level. Berth-occupying vessels correspond to roughly 2–4 and 20–22 commercial vessels, respectively, while channel-crossing vessels correspond to approximately 1.5–2.5 and 19–22. The framework is transferable to other port settings and provides a quantitative basis for prioritizing mitigation measures and informing construction scheduling.