Understanding Farmers’ Behavioral Intention to Adopt Digital Agricultural Technologies Under Climate Change: An Extended TPB Model from a Climate-Vulnerable Paddy Community in Sri Lanka

Digital Agricultural Technology (DAT) adoption remains poorly understood in climate-vulnerable tropical islands. To address this gap, this study examines how demand, supply, and environmental dimensions interact to shape farmers’ adoption decisions, applying the extended Theory of Planned Behavior. The data were collected from 400 farmers selected randomly in the Anuradhapura District, Sri Lanka, using a structured questionnaire. The analyses were conducted a Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model. Four behavioral segments were identified: confident adopters (29.5%), utility-driven emerging adopters (42%), uncertain users (20.5%), and skeptical users (8%). Climate change awareness (β = 0.712), attitude (β = 0.297), social norms (β = 0.197), perceived behavioral control (β = 0.130), perceived usefulness (β = 0.162), access to infrastructure (β = 0.098), and risk aversion (β = 0.142) positively influenced farmers’ intention toward DAT. Climate change awareness strongly influenced attitudes, highlighting the central role of environmental dimensions. Institutional support had no significant effect. Behavioral intention and actual adoption (β = 0.575) influenced the willingness to continue DAT. Policymakers should move from ‘one-size-fits-all’ digital extensions to segment-specific interventions: peer-led networks for confident adopters, subsidies for utility-driven farmers, social learning for uncertain users, and in-person training for skeptical users. The study provides context-specific evidence that demonstrates how behavior shapes farmers’ adoption pathways under climate change, addressing SDGs 1, 2, 9, 12, 13, and 15.