Spatial differentiation of land-use transitions along coastal gradients in Vietnam

Coastal urbanization is reshaping land-use patterns in many developing countries, particularly in rapidly developing coastal areas. This study analyzes land-use dynamics across coastal gradients in Vietnam during 2017–2025 using ESRI annual data, GIS analysis, and panel regression models. Three coastal gradient zones (0–10 km, 10–20 km, and 20–30 km from the coastline) were established to examine variations in urban land, cropland, and water. The results show that urban land continuously increases across all coastal gradients, while cropland declined over time. The 0–10 km zone exhibited the highest concentration of urban land and the clearest decline in cropland, reflecting strong land-use transition pressure in nearshore areas. Meanwhile, the 10–20 km zone exhibited characteristics of a transitional belt, where restructuring processes between cropland and vegetation remained significant. Land-use transition analysis further indicates that conversion from cropland to urban land predominated in coastal areas, while conversions between vegetation and cropland were more common in inland areas. Panel regression results indicate that urban land share increases with population and follows a nonlinear temporal pattern, while water shares are higher in the nearshore zone but negatively associated with population. Overall, the study indicates that coastal land-use dynamics in Vietnam are not uniform but reflect different conversion mechanisms across coastal gradient. The findings contribute to understanding spatial heterogeneity in coastal land systems and provide gradient-based insights for climate-sensitive coastal governance, adaptive spatial planning, and sustainable coastal development in rapidly urbanizing coastal regions.