Predictive algorithms in the management of computer systems

Predictive algorithms play a crucial role in systems management by alerting the user to potential failures. We report on three case studies dealing with the prediction of failures in computer systems: (1) long-term prediction of performance variables (e.g., disk utilization), (2) short-term prediction of abnormal behavior (e.g., threshold violations), and (3) short-term prediction of system events (e.g., router failure). Empirical results show that predictive algorithms can be successfully employed in the estimation of performance variables and the prediction of critical events.