Economic cycles and the transition to motherhood: Differentiation between natives without a migration background and children of immigrants

While a large body of research addresses the influence of economic cycles on the transition to motherhood, limited attention has been given to the impact of economic conditions on first births for the children of immigrants. This study addresses this gap using population-wide longitudinal microdata for Belgium (1960–2010), combining hazard models and microsimulations to examine (1) whether the association between economic conditions and entry into parenthood varies between natives without a migration background and children of immigrants by parental origin, and (2) the extent to which annual shifts in the proportion of women entering parenthood (SPPR1) in these different groups can be accounted for by variation in the aggregate-level unemployment rate. Findings reveal pro-cyclical fertility patterns among natives without a migration background and the children of European immigrants, who postpone childbearing during economic downturns, while the descendants of Turkish and Maghrebi migrants exhibit weaker responses, suggesting a “decoupling” of economic conditions from family formation. The association between unemployment rate and first birth hazards also varies by education level within the parental origin groups considered. Highly educated women delay parenthood in response to rising unemployment while lower-educated women exhibit higher first birth hazards during economic downturns, with particularly strong educational differentiation in children of Turkish immigrants. Such differentials by native-born women’s origin and level of education suggest that groups with structurally limited economic opportunities in the segmented Belgian labour market may consider motherhood as an alternative pathway to career development regardless of economic conditions.