Dynamic management simulation of grasslands in the Spanish Cantabrian Coast for climate change impact assessment

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

Permanent grasslands are a fundamental ecosystem for the biodiversity, agricultural, livestock and economic productivity of the Spanish Cantabrian Coast (northern-northwestern Spain). In the context of climate change, it is necessary to quantify precisely how the productivity of these agricultural systems will evolve and whether it will be necessary to introduce adaptation measures. To this aim, this study assesses the impact of climate change on grassland productivity in the Spanish Cantabrian Coast for the near future (2030–2059), through a suite of simulations with the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) at 150 different sites. By using optimal mowing and fertilization routines, and alternative climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), evidence is given that productivity will likely increase ca. 11–14% for forage and carbon (C) yields, and 7–10% for nitrogen (N) yields in Cantabrian grasslands. To obtain such production increases, it will be necessary to perform cuts more frequently over an extended harvest season throughout the year.