Modelling the decision making in light of the energy transformation in Poland: nuclear plant construction case study

This article examines decision-making in Poland’s nuclear energy programme within the broader green transformation. Applying a rational actor decision model, it analyses the interaction of three variables – public support, intragovernmental unity, and external pressure – across successive governments from 2015 to 2025. The study identifies three distinct phases of policy development shaped by shifts in these factors. Decisive actions, including site selection and international agreements, occurred only when public opinion, political cohesion, and external pressures converged, while their absence led to delay or inertia. Empirical evidence is drawn from public opinion data, party manifestos, parliamentary debates, and external drivers such as EU climate regulations and geopolitical disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The findings confirm that alignment of the three variables accelerates decision-making, whereas misalignment produces stagnation. The article contributes to research on energy policy and political decision-making by offering an empirically grounded theoretical model explaining variation in Poland’s nuclear policy outcomes.