Combining ecological and economic modelling in analysing a pest invasion contingency plan – The case of pine wood nematode in Norway

Introductions of the pine wood nematode (PWN), which causes Pine Wilt Disease (PWD), have devastating effects on pine forests in regions with susceptible host trees under suitable climate conditions. Norwegian authorities have proposed a contingency plan if PWN is detected in Norway. We compare the costs of implementing this plan with the costs of further spread and damage of PWN under two climate change scenarios: present and the most likely future climate. With the present climate, PWD will not occur in Norway. Under climatic change, the cost of PWD damage is approximately 0.078–0.157 million NOK (0.01–0.02 million Euros) estimated as net present value with 2 and 4% p.a. discount rate. In contrast, the corresponding costs of implementing the suggested contingency plan will be 1.7–2.2 billion NOK (0.2–0.25 billion Euros). These costs are caused by reduced income from industrial timber production and the costs of the eradication measures. Costs related to reduced recreation or biodiversity are expected to be very high, but are not included in the above estimates. Many of the factors in the analysis are burdened with high uncertainty, but sensitivity analyses indicate that the results are rather robust even for drastic changes in assumptions. The results suggest that there is a need to revise the current PWN contingency plan in Norway.