Socio‐Economic Impact of Sustainable Development of Water Resources in the Semi‐Arid Regions of Village Raleras, Maharashtra: A Case Study Using Machine Learning Techniques

From a socio‐economic perspective, it is of interest to find out whether sustainable water resources can truly sustain rural livelihoods. Based on historical research, it is known that an improvement on resilient economic indicators such as ground water is often correlated with socio‐economic improvements and other aspects of rural livelihoods. The extent of factors affecting livelihood sustenance and improvement in the village of Raleras, Maharashtra, aids in creating a definite understanding of the facets correlating with groundwater restoration. Subsistence channels, arising as an outcome of the created impoundment structures, are tested for their impact on income gains and livelihood improvement. Examination on collected opinion was carried out to provide insights into the ‘before’ and ‘after’ (2015–2023) conditions. A five‐capitals framework has been employed for the interpretation of these results, along with a multivariate analysis to predict a causal framework for the improvement of livelihoods in agrarian economies through creation of check dams and watershed management. Time series study shows that there is greater variance in the NDVI progressively from 2021 to 2023 with values ranging from 0.25 to 0.50 in 2015, to 0.50–0.75 by 2021. Further increase in green patches in 2023 indicates enhanced vegetation health especially in the northern regions. Alternately, NDWI values elaborate initial severe water stress (−0.25 to 0.00) with progressive improvements in localized areas. The spatial variation map shows that eventually there is a notable improvement with more land supporting shrubbery along with more water bodies. The prominent increase in vegetation particularly in the later years can be attributed to water management initiatives undertaken in Raleras. The distributions of the annual average revenue from agricultural operations in 2015 (M = 146,907, SD = 95445.8) and 2023 (M = 706860.5, SD = 655748.3) showed a statistically significant improvement [ t (214) = 13.06, p < 0.001]. The low p ‐value of 0.001205 ( p < 0.05) of the educational facilities utilised indicates a statistically significant result, proving the association between educational quality and improved water facilities. All of the variables under evaluation, including the respondents' vehicle type, landholding type, and house type, have large and positive chi‐squared values, suggesting that the ‘before’ and ‘after’ distributions for each of these variables differ. Principal Component Analysis is used to summarise correlated livelihood indicators and reveals that income growth and livelihood improvement is multi‐dimensional. Multiple pathways to income change are identified through Partial Least Squares Regression, including agriculture and market‐linked channels. A Random Forest Regression Model is utilised to assess the relative importance of livelihood channels and baseline characteristics. Results indicate that improvement in irrigation access, crop diversification, housing quality, livestock ownership and female literacy are strongly associated with higher income gains. Hence, it may be said that the groundwater recharge as a result of construction of check dams must have improved agricultural activity or agricultural output in a material manner, and accordingly all capitals for Raleras have improved.