Multi-period Optimization of Sugarcane, Corn, and Agave Biorefineries for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production in Brazil

The decarbonization of the aviation sector represents one of the most significant challenges in the global energy transition due to its dependence on high energy-density liquid fuels and limited electrification alternatives. This study develops a multi-period mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model to evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production via the alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) route in Brazil, using ethanol derived from sugarcane, corn, and agave. The model integrates mass and energy balances, regional logistics, hydrogen supply alternatives, capital and operating costs, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within a unified optimization framework aimed at maximizing net present value (NPV). The optimized system produces 8.20 Mt of SAF annually alongside bioethanol, gasoline, diesel, biomethane, and other co-products, requiring substantial biomass inputs exceeding 15 million hectares of cultivated land. The calculated minimum selling price (MSP) of 0.947 USD/L is positioned at the lower end of the range reported in the literature (0.87–2.74 USD/L), indicating competitive economic performance relative to other feedstocks and technological pathways. Environmentally, the system emits 34.36 MtCO2e/year but avoids 93.58 MtCO2e/year, resulting in a net reduction of 59.22 MtCO2e/year. Transportation emissions represent only 0.31% of total emissions. When contextualized within Brazil’s 2035 climate targets (0.85–1.05 GtCO2e/year), the net mitigation achieved corresponds to approximately 5.6–7.0% of the projected national emissions level. These results suggest that large-scale SAF deployment via integrated ATJ pathways could play a substantial role in supporting national decarbonization strategies, although biomass demand and land-use implications remain critical considerations.