A Physics-Based Site-Specific Approach to Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis

In the existing probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA), empirical equations derived from a database of previously observed surface earthquake faults are used. A physics-based PFDHA method was developed using numerical analysis instead of the empirical equations. The developed method was applied to the surface earthquake faults in the 2014 Northern Nagano earthquake. The method enables us to evaluate fault displacement hazard by considering information obtained from geological and fault surveys at important facility sites as an analytical model.