Key result
Mortality involving non-rheumatic valvular disease and AF surged ~2.5-fold between 1999 and 2023.
Why the study?
Non-rheumatic valvular heart disease and atrial fibrillation are major contributors to cardiovascular mortality in the U.S., but national trends in deaths involving both conditions were not well characterized.
Observational (n=141,846)
Mortality involving both atrial fibrillation and non-rheumatic valvular heart disease has steadily increased in the US from 1999 to 2023, disproportionately affecting older adults, males, rural residents, and non-Hispanic White populations.
Rising AAMR in non-rheumatic valvular disease with AF may warrant closer surveillance; leaves open targeted strategies to reverse trends.
Non-Rheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVHD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are major contributors to cardiovascular mortality in the U.S. Their coexistence increases the risk of stroke, heart failure, and death.This study examines national trends in deaths involving both NRVHD and AF in the United States from 1999 to 2023. Centers for disease control and prevention - Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research data (1999–2023) were analyzed for adults with AF (I48) and NRVHD (I34–I36) as contributing causes of death. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated per 100,000 population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine average and annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change. From 1999 to 2023, a total of 141,846 deaths in the U.S. involved both AF and NRVHD. The AAMR increased from 2.98 in 1999 to 7.30 in 2023 (AAPC: 4.17; P < .001). Males had higher overall AAMR (5.31) (AAPC: 4.73) than females (4.02) (AAPC: 3.58). Non-hispanic Whites had the highest overall AAMR (5.17) while Hispanics had an AAMR of (1.88). Regionally, West had the highest overall AAMR (5.73), followed by the Northeast (4.81), the Midwest (4.79), and then the South (3.48). Majority of the deaths occurred in inpatient medical facilities (49,170 deaths, 35.0%). The age group 65 + showed the highest mortality (crude mortality rate: 11.93). Rural areas had higher overall AAMR (4.36) compared to urban areas (4.10). Deaths involving both AF and NRVHD increased from 1999 to 2023, with greater burden among older adults, males, rural areas, the West region, and non-Hispanic White population.
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ElGhazzani et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Non-Rheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVHD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) (n=141,846). Time (1999 to 2023) vs. Baseline year 1999 was evaluated on Age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) per 100,000 population (AAPC 4.17, p=< .001). Deaths involving both non-rheumatic valvular heart disease and atrial fibrillation increased from an age-adjusted mortality rate of 2.98 in 1999 to 7.30 in 2023 (AAPC 4.17; P<.001).
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