Probabilistic Connectivity Assessment of Road Networks Subjected to Ground Motion and Tsunamis Considering the Spatial Correlations among Hazard Intensities

Before the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake, the effects of multiple cascading hazards on bridge performance and the associated functionalities of road networks must be assessed to develop recovery strategies. This paper presents a framework for assessing the probabilistic connectivity of road networks exposed to both ground motion and tsunami, considering the spatial correlations among hazard intensities. To evaluate the joint probabilities of bridge states (i.e., passable and impassable states) and the probabilistic connectivity of road networks, the total probability theorem was used to integrate spatially correlated seismic and tsunami hazard assessments into the fragility estimates that consider the cascading effects of ground motion and tsunami-induced damages to bridges. For illustrative purposes, the probabilistic connectivity of hypothetical road networks in Japan that could be affected by both ground motion and tsunami during the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake was assessed using the proposed method. The results showed that seismic retrofitting of bridges located along the route where the probability of impassable states due to tsunami is very low can enhance the probabilistic connectivity of entire road networks.