From Mainstream News to Prediction Markets: Dual Pathways of Information Seeking During an Anticipatory Security Crisis

Introduction How do individuals seek information when a security threat is anticipated but has not yet materialized? This study examined whether intolerance of uncertainty and state anxiety are differentially associated with information consumption across channels during an anticipatory conflict period. Methods A national quota‐sampled survey of 403 Israeli adults was conducted in late February 2026, during days of heightened concern preceding a joint US–Israeli strike on Iran and Iranian retaliation. Mediation analyses (PROCESS Model 4; 5000 bootstrap resamples) examined associations between intolerance of uncertainty, state anxiety, and six information outcomes, controlling for demographic covariates. Results Domestic mainstream media, social media, and interpersonal channels were associated with intolerance of uncertainty directly; speculative platforms and foreign media only indirectly, through state anxiety. Respondents who find uncertainty generally difficult reported heavier use of channels embedded in daily routine, whereas those reporting greater anxiety during the crisis were more likely to consult sources outside it. Conclusion The findings are consistent with psychologically differentiated patterns of crisis information seeking: routine channels reflect stable dispositional monitoring, whereas non‐routine channels are associated with acute affective states. The study introduces speculative information platforms into crisis communication research and identifies state anxiety as a candidate mechanism differentiating media pathways.