A Rural–Urban Political Divide in the Hispanic Electorate?

Objective From 2020 to 2024, the Hispanic vote moved strongly toward Republican Donald Trump and GOP US House candidates. This article seeks to understand which Hispanic voters shifted to the Republican Party across these two elections. Method We use survey data to model Hispanic voting behavior by section (South vs. Non‐South) and place (rural vs. urban) in the 2020 and 2024 elections. Results A robust rural–urban presidential voting split materializes in 2024 among Hispanics in the South, but not outside the region. Further, this southern rural–urban political divide also shows up in Hispanics’ down‐ballot voting for the US House. Conclusion We contend that these findings reflect a powerful appeal that Trump and the Republican Party cultivated among this increasingly influential and growing electorate. However, given changes in political conditions post‐2024, and without Trump on the ballot, we expect Hispanic voting behavior to exhibit greater volatility in the 2026 midterm elections.