The rise of the Republican Party support in democratic strongholds along the U.S.-Mexico border: the political efficacy of conservatives in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas

The results of the 2024 presidential election surprised many for several reasons. One of them is that Trump received a lot of support from Latino voters. The Rio Grande Valley (RGV), located in South Texas on the border with Mexico, is no exception. All four counties in the RGV voted more for Trump than for Harris. This is puzzling because the RGV, with a predominantly Hispanic population, has voted for Democratic presidents since the 1960s and has been considered a Democratic stronghold. The region has also seen growing conservatism toward immigration and the border. How can we understand this? This study focuses on the political efficacy of conservatives in the region. Since Trump’s election in 2016, conservatives in the RGV have felt that their support for the Republican Party has gained practical significance in the traditionally Democratic bastion. Their increased political efficacy may have led to growing expressed support for the Republican Party and restrictive immigration policies. We test these hypotheses using original datasets from two waves of RGV public opinion surveys, conducted in 2018 and 2022. Our study provides a psychological mechanism to explain the sudden growth of Republican Party support in the South Texas border region.