Farmers’ satisfaction and livelihood transitions following farmland expropriation in East Gojjam Zone, Northwest Ethiopia

This study examines farmers’ satisfaction with compensation for farmland expropriation and its socioeconomic determinants in the East Gojjam Zone, Northwest Ethiopia, by utilizing a multi-stage sampling design and conducting a cross-sectional field survey of 480 randomly selected households in the peri-urban areas of Debre Markos, Motta, Dejen, and Bichena towns. The descriptive statistics reveal that 55% of respondents expressed overall satisfaction, while 45% reported dissatisfaction with the expropriation process. Post-expropriation analysis indicates a profound structural shift in livelihoods, characterized by a sharp decline in subsistence farming (from 81.46% to 17.92%) and a subsequent transition into vulnerable daily wage labor (26.25%) and chronic unemployment (11.25%). Conversely, urban expansion significantly improved household access to electricity, safe piped water, and road networks. An ordered logistic regression model was employed to investigate determinants of farmers’ satisfaction with compensation. The empirical results demonstrate that the amount of compensation, diversified modes of compensation, and prompt timing of payments have positive and highly significant effects on farmers’ satisfaction. Conversely, residential displacement, larger family sizes, greater areas of expropriated land and higher fertility of the lost plots significantly reduce satisfaction levels. Interestingly, exposure to agricultural risks positively associated with satisfaction due to lowered baseline income expectations. These findings highlight the need for policy interventions targeting fair property valuations, standardized rehabilitation guidance, and sustainable livelihood restoration frameworks to achieve equitable urban development.