Human behavioral factors influencing speeding on a high-risk inter-urban corridor in Nigeria: Evidence for policy reform within a safe system framework

Speeding remains a dominant contributor to road traffic injury severity on intercity corridors in Nigeria. This study examines the behavioral, enforcement, and contextual factors associated with speeding and crash involvement on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway within a Safe System perspective. A cross-sectional survey of drivers ( n = 900) and enforcement personnel ( n = 100) was combined with secondary crash statistics from the FRSC. Descriptive analysis, chi-square tests, and a mixed logit model were applied, with model diagnostics (AIC/BIC, ROC–AUC, VIF) reported. Significant associations were observed between the crash involvement by education attainment, vehicle type, and driving experience. Incorporating behavioral predictors improved model fit (Nagelkerke R 2 ≈ 0.39; AUC ≈ 0.86) with behavioral variables particularly speeding frequency, overtaking pressure, and economic motivation were positively associated with crash involvement, while risk perception, enforcement credibility, and speed limiter presence were negatively associated. A knowledge compliance gap was observed, with many respondents' reporting awareness of speed limits but misidentifying statutory thresholds. The findings demonstrate that speeding on Nigerian inter-urban highways is sustained by behavioral normalization of risk within a permissive system environment. The study concludes that effective speed management requires credible enforcement, self-explaining road design, behavior change strategies, and institutional reforms consistent with Safe System principles. Policy implications emphasize technology-based enforcement, corridor-level interventions (targeted enforcement, feedback signage, and compliance auditing) alongside institutional feasibility considerations for a sustainable speed management.