A systematic review of foresight methods used in the formulation of futures scenarios: evidence from articles indexed in scopus and web of science (2014–2023)

This study presents a systematic literature review of the foresight methods used in the formulation of futures scenarios, analyzing 115 articles indexed in Scopus and Web of Science between 2014 and 2023. Applying the PRISMA methodology, the review identifies a plural methodological ecosystem in which—although qualitative approaches predominate—there are patterns of combination toward methodological triangulation aimed at strengthening plausibility and reducing bias in complex environments. The analysis shows that the most frequently used methods are environmental scanning (PESTEL), participatory workshops, the Delphi method, structural analysis (MICMAC), and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). A significant expansion of these practices is observed beyond the traditional corporate sphere into sectors such as public health, higher education, governance, and environmental sustainability. The study further highlights an incipient presence of methods that incorporate artificial intelligence, text mining, and computational models, which complement qualitative narratives with quantitative rigor. The article proposes the concept of methodological aggregation capacity to describe the ability of scenario methodologies to coherently incorporate techniques of different epistemic natures. In conclusion, the maturity of the field rests on the systemic convergence between data-driven rigor and narrative depth, consolidating scenarios as instruments for social learning and strategic decision-making.