Biophysical modelling and network analyses can inform strategic site selection for mangrove restoration

Modelling how mangroves disperse can help prioritize site restoration selection by identifying source populations and linking appropriate restoration efforts with potential site-specific propagule availability. Dispersal modelling approaches are particularly impactful in regions with limited empirical data, like the Middle East. To demonstrate how a dispersal modelling approach can be used to inform landscape-level mangrove management decisions, we developed a biophysical model of Avicennia marina propagule dispersal across the State of Qatar. We paired simulated hydrodynamic and meteorological data with species-specific propagule dispersal traits and modelled mangrove propagule movement and connectivity over 10 years. The results identified potential source and sink locations driven by factors like current, wind, seed buoyancy, and habitat suitability. We identified several steppingstone sites that appear to facilitate connectivity across otherwise isolated populations, and that interannual hydrodynamic variations helped maintain landscape connectivity. When we paired the model outputs with a habitat suitability map, we were able to demonstrate how hypothetical afforestation and enhancement of strategic locations can improve overall connectivity and how this approach can be used to support national mangrove restoration objectives.