A lifecycle model approach for predicting mangrove extent.

Tidal dynamics are a well-known driver of mangrove distribution, with most predictive measures using some form of tidal parameter (tidal plane or hydroperiod) to define mangrove extent. However, these methods often fail to consider the causative reason why mangroves thrive or perish at a specific elevation or how mangrove survivability thresholds can differ across a species' lifecycle. The lack of understanding of the drivers influencing mangrove establishment has resulted in poor success rates for mangrove restoration and creation projects worldwide. A novel mangrove lifecycle model that uses a multi-forcing threshold approach is proposed to simulate Avicennia marina viability across establishment and development phases. The lifecycle model includes critical threshold stages for reproduction, seed dispersal, seedling establishment and development, and mature tree survival. The model was validated at 37 sites in eastern Australia to predict mangrove extent across various estuary types and tidal dynamic conditions. The model accurately calculated the upper (RMSE = 0.0676, R