Motivation, opportunity, or ability: what influences public participation in dual-carbon governance?

Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality constitutes a comprehensive and profound economic and social transformation, requiring the coordinated efforts of the government, enterprises and the public. Owing to China’s vast territory and large number of cities, the governance difficulty of the "dual carbon" issue has been enhanced. This thesis adopts the "motivation-opportunity-ability" (MOA) behavioral framework to construct an influencing factor analysis model for public participation in dual carbon governance, taking 28 provincial-level regions in China as research cases. Fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) is employed to explore how carbon emission index, willingness to pay for low-carbon, government’s dual carbon responses and regulations, public information capacity and economic capacity affect public participation in carbon neutrality initiatives, so as to realize the guiding role of research results in urban and regional development.The findings show that none of these factors alone is a necessary condition for public participation. Instead, three main pathways promote high public engagement: "opportunity-ability oriented participation," "motivation-ability supported participation," and "opportunity-ability dual-driven participation." In scenarios with high participation, participation ability—considered a core factor—can be combined with any other elements to facilitate engagement. Participation, motivation, and opportunity are interchangeable, highlighting that participation ability is vital and fosters greater public involvement. So, we should promote shared prosperity through high-quality development, strengthen government regulation and responses to dual-carbon goals, and tailor strategies for public participation based on conditions of city and regional strengths to effectively reach dual-carbon targets.