Reviewing the climate change landscape in South Africa’s marine fisheries: progress, gaps, and future directions

Climate change is reshaping South Africa’s marine ecosystems and fisheries with consequences for ecological productivity, livelihoods and governance. Although research on climate impacts on fisheries has expanded, the overall climate-risk landscape for South African fisheries has not been reviewed using the risk framing proposed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Drawing on 72 peer-reviewed publications (between 1996 and July 2023) together with targeted grey literature, and applying explicit inclusion/exclusion criteria, this paper examines how previously published climate change research in the South African marine system addresses the AR5 risk-based components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and the associated response dimension of adaptation across ecological, social and social-ecological domains. The review shows strong evidence for ecological change but far less integration of social and governance dimensions that shape real-world risk and adaptive capacity. Most studies focus on vulnerability and impacts, with limited explicit characterisation of climate hazards, spatial exposure or full risk assessments. Research effort is geographically uneven, concentrated in the southern Benguela, and adaptation planning remains fragmented across institutions. Collectively, these patterns indicate that South Africa has substantial knowledge of climate impacts but lacks the coordinated frameworks required to operationalise climate risk in fisheries management. The paper outlines priorities for strengthening risk-informed governance, improving integration of scientific and local knowledge, and supporting equitable, community-engaged adaptation.