Increased water requirements for avocado, chayote and coffee due to climate change in central Mexico

Efficient water management in agriculture is essential for crops that are sensitive to water stress. Poor water management and climate change will increase the water demands of crops, making irrigation indispensable for maintaining productivity. In this study, the water requirements (CWR) and irrigation water requirements (IWR) of chayote ( Sechium edule var. Virens levis), avocado ( Persea americana var. Hass) and coffee ( Coffea arabica ) were calculated in two micro-basins in Veracruz, Mexico, both under current conditions and under climate change scenarios. The CROPWAT model was used, adapted to crop characteristics and soil properties. In addition, historical (1980–2010) and future climate variables were used, based on the MIROC6, MRI-ESM2–0 and CNRM-ESM2–1 models (SSP5–8.5: 2081–2100). The results indicate a decrease in precipitation (–269 to –576 mm) and an increase in temperature (4.1–5.7 °C). This raises the reference evapotranspiration and the water demand of the crops. The CWR will increase by 14–20% for chayote and avocado, whilst for coffee it will rise by up to 56%. IWR increases by 93–122% for chayote, 57–72% for avocado and up to 239% for coffee. Of particular note is the shift from the current water surplus to an irrigation-dependent system for coffee. The lack of adaptation strategies could reduce yields by 13% for chayote, 11% for avocado and 16% for coffee. The implementation of strategies such as drip irrigation, controlled deficit irrigation (CDI) and moisture conservation practices will be key to mitigating the impacts of climate change and ensuring the yield and continuity of agricultural systems in the region.