Cross border consequences of responses to climate change: Risks and opportunities

Losses and damages from the impacts of climate change are already reshaping economic development pathways. However, so too are mitigation and adaptation actions taken in response to climate change. As countries implement climate policies with increasing ambition and scale, cross-border effects arise for other countries. Building on evolving conceptualisations of transboundary climate risk we set out a framework to map policy measures, transboundary flow alterations and transmission mechanisms that give rise to international risks and opportunities. Drawing empirically from observable effects across five Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), we identify that climate-related responses in other countries across domains such as energy, industrial, migration and defence policy, can transmit effects through a range of flows (trade, finance, people, biophysical, technology) and mechanisms (prices, production factors, norms, security). Failure to adequately conceptualise how climate responses in one country will affect others, the transmission pathways and channels to respond, has major implications for the current fragile consensus on addressing the climate emergency. New conceptual frameworks to enhance understanding of the channels of impact will better equip policymakers and researchers to anticipate the full spectrum of cross-border spillovers, manage risks governance, and identify opportunities.