Towards a Scientific Governance of the Earth System: A risk-based epistemological perspective on the evolution of international climate governance

Climate governance has historically been structured around the mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Although this approach has been fundamental, the growing complexity of the Earth System calls for an expansion of the conceptual foundations underpinning global action. This essay argues that the climate crisis should be understood not only as an environmental challenge but also as a problem of systemic risk governance and evidence-based decision-making. Drawing on Earth System Science, epistemology, and the distinction between risk governance and risk management, the article examines how institutional paradigms, knowledge structures, and cognitive and organizational biases shape the human response to planetary risks, and proposes epistemic traceability as a mechanism for addressing these limitations. It advocates a transition toward comprehensive risk management, grounded in primary prevention as a principle of anticipatory action addressing the structural conditions of vulnerability, with direct implications for global security, peace, and defence. The analysis also incorporates international scientific cooperation and artificial intelligence as emerging analytical infrastructure, emphasizing that their transformative potential depends on a fifth cross-cutting condition: Systemic Cultural Leadership, understood as a system's capacity to reassess the cultural architecture underlying its decision-making. Its operational outcome, the Cultural Capacity for Evolution, determines whether available knowledge is translated into timely institutional learning. Ultimately, the article advocates governance systems capable of continuous learning, reassessing their own assumptions, and anticipating the crises of the twenty-first century.