New Horizons for Economic Growth in Uzbekistan in the Context of Wto Accession

This article examines the potential implications of Uzbekistan's prospective accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for the sources, structure, and quality of economic growth. Drawing on official data covering 2016–2026 and model-based estimates, the study highlights the country's strong economic growth performance, including a growth rate of 7.7% in 2025, while identifying opportunities to strengthen productivity-driven development, diversify exports, and expand private-sector participation. Approximately 6% of firms engage in exporting, while gold accounts for a substantial share of total exports. Simulation results suggest that tariff liberalisation alone could generate annual gains equivalent to less than 0.5% of GDP, whereas broader reform scenarios incorporating services liberalisation and investment responses indicate potential long-term GDP gains of 9–17%. The findings suggest that WTO accession could serve as a credible institutional commitment mechanism for accelerating the transition towards productivity-led economic growth. Realising these potential benefits would depend on complementary reforms aimed at improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises and the banking sector, facilitating international trade, developing workforce skills, and supporting workers affected by structural economic adjustments.