Green Industrialisation and Export Diversification in Uzbekistan: Pathways to Low-Carbon Value Chains

This article examines how green industrialisation can help Uzbekistan upgrade its export structure and raise foreign-trade earnings as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the scheduled end of GSP+ preferences in 2027 change market-access conditions. The study uses a qualitative, policy-analytic approach: it analyses official strategies and international reports, describes energy, emissions, financial and trade indicators, and assesses policy options against existing capabilities, market access and enabling conditions. It identifies five pathways: clean power and grids, decarbonisation of existing export sectors, upgrading of textiles and agro-processing, new low-carbon products, and green finance based on a national taxonomy. The results suggest that reliable low-carbon electricity should come first, followed by decarbonisation of sectors with existing capabilities, with the period to 2027 as a critical window. The summary lies in linking Uzbekistan's export capabilities, studied earlier mainly through comparative advantage and diversification measures, with green industrial policy and carbon-border requirements in one pathway framework.